DNA 06: Match probabilities assuming population subdivision


A blood stain was recovered from a crime scene and a suspect was later arrested.

The DNA profiles of the crime stain and suspect are C = 10/10 and S = 10/10 at locus D16 and C = 11/13 and S = 11/13 at locus D8.


Assume the corrected allele probabilities:

p(D16/10) = 0.063

p(D8/11) = 0.069 and p(D8/13) = 0.333

For hypotheses:

HP: The suspect left the stain

HD: A random person left the stain

Calculate the match probabilities and likelihood ratio assuming that the degree of population subdivision, θ = 0.02.

Video Answer: 0.0117, 0.0574, LR = 1489