Study text: "Essential Mathematics and Statistics for Science", 2nd Edition,

G Currell & A A Dowman, Wiley-Blackwell, 2009

G Currell & A A Dowman, Wiley-Blackwell, 2009

- The fingermark characeristics of each finger of 17 males and 40 females were assessed into Arch, Whorl and Loop, and the numbers in each category given in the table below:

Select ALL of the following calculations that are correct:Arch Whorl Loop Male 40 36 94 Female 49 92 259

(Click here to view the Video Answer or to download pdf notes on Bayesian statistics) - It is known that 3% of a given population are drug users.

A screening test for a drug has the characteristics:

- Probability of recording a positive results for a drug user:*p*(P|D) = 0.90

- Probability of recording a negative results for a non-drug user:*p*(NOT P|NOT D) = 0.98

Select ALL of the following calculations/statements that are correct:

(Click here to view the Video Answer or to download pdf notes on Bayesian statistics) - The evidence from a burglary in a remote location is that the perpetrator must be from a suspect group of 400 possible adults.

Biological data shows that the probability of a random person leaving the same biological evidence is 1 in 8000. The accused is one of the possible suspects and matches the biological evidence.

The prosecution’s assertion, A, is that the suspect commited the burglary, whereas the defence’s assertion is that it was carried out by one of the other 399 possible adults.

Assume that the probability of recording the biological evidence, E, given that the assertion is true,*p*(E|A) = 0.90.

Select ALL of the following calculations that are correct:

(Click here to view the Video Answer or to download pdf notes on Bayesian statistics) - Using the same data as the previous question, the evidence from a burglary in a remote location is that the perpetrator must be from a suspect group of 400 possible adults.

Biological data shows that the probability of a random person leaving the same biological evidence is 1 in 8000. The accused is one of the possible suspects and matches the biological evidence.

The prosecution’s assertion, A, is that the suspect commited the burglary, whereas the defence’s assertion is that it was carried out by one of the other 399 possible adults.

Assume that the probability of recording the biological evidence, E, given that the assertion is true,*p*(E|A) = 0.90.

Select ALL of the following calculations that are correct:

(Click here to view the Video Answer or to download pdf notes on Bayesian statistics)